Although the agreement was not renewed during the 2026 joint review, it remains in effect through 2036. Here's what importers should know about the next phase of negotiations and annual reviews.
The outcome of the USMCA joint review marks the beginning of a new phase for North American trade. While the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) [1] was not renewed during its required joint review on July 1, 2026, the agreement will remain in force through its scheduled expiration on July 1, 2036 [2].
For importers, the immediate rules governing trade under USMCA remain unchanged. However, the review process introduces greater uncertainty as the United States, Mexico, and Canada enter a period of annual reviews and continued negotiations that could reshape the agreement over time.
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What happened during the 2026 joint review?
Government representatives from the United States, Mexico, and Canada met virtually on July 1, 2026, to conduct the first required joint review of USMCA. At the conclusion of the meeting, the United States declined to extend the agreement in its current form [2].
Although the agreement was not renewed, USMCA does not immediately expire. Instead, it remains effective through July 1, 2036, while annual joint reviews provide opportunities for the three countries to negotiate revisions before that date.
What does this mean for importers?
For now, companies can continue claiming USMCA preferential treatment for qualifying imports under the agreement's existing rules.
However, businesses should anticipate an evolving trade environment as governments evaluate potential changes during future review cycles. Annual negotiations could affect areas such as:
- Rules of origin
- Regional value content requirements
- Customs administration and compliance
- Industry-specific trade provisions
- Market access priorities
Importers with integrated North American supply chains should continue monitoring policy developments and evaluate how future changes could affect sourcing strategies, landed costs, and customs compliance.
Bilateral negotiations will continue
Following the joint review, U.S. Trade Representative Ambassador Jamieson Greer stated that the United States will continue working with both Mexico and Canada to address perceived shortcomings in the agreement. He also confirmed that bilateral negotiations between the United States and Mexico will begin during the week of July 20, completing the third and final planned round of discussions [3]. The timing of additional negotiations between the United States and Canada has not yet been announced.
As negotiations progress, businesses should watch for announcements that could signal future amendments or policy shifts affecting North American trade.
Key dates to monitor
Date | Milestone |
July 1, 2026 | Required USMCA joint review completed |
Week of July 20, 2026 | Planned bilateral negotiations between the United States and Mexico |
July 1, 2027 | First annual joint review begins |
Annually through 2036 | Joint reviews continue unless all three countries agree to extend the agreement |
July 1, 2036 | Current USMCA expiration date |
How businesses can prepare
While no immediate changes take effect as a result of the USMCA joint review, importers should use this period to prepare for a more dynamic trade environment.
Organizations can strengthen their readiness by:
- Reviewing supply chains that rely on USMCA preferential treatment
- Confirming origin documentation and compliance processes
- Monitoring future negotiations and annual review outcomes
- Evaluating potential duty and sourcing impacts if agreement provisions change
Staying informed will help businesses respond proactively as North American trade policy continues to evolve.
How Baker Tilly can help
As negotiations continue and annual reviews begin, understanding potential changes to USMCA can help businesses reduce risk and plan for future trade scenarios. Baker Tilly's Global Trade Management team helps organizations assess trade impacts, strengthen customs compliance, and prepare for evolving regulatory requirements.
References and resources
[1] https://ustr.gov/trade-agreements/free-trade-agreements/united-states-mexico-canada-agreement
[2] https://ustr.gov/about/policy-offices/press-office/press-releases/2026/july/american-farmers-ranchers-manufacturers-and-businesses-applaud-president-trump-not-rubber-stamping
[3] https://ustr.gov/about/policy-offices/press-office/press-releases/2026/july/ambassador-greer-issues-statement-usmca-joint-review
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