2026 US Investment outcomes monitor

Our recently released 2026 U.S. Investment Outcomes Monitor on AI and Digital Infrastructure explores how artificial intelligence (AI) is reshaping private capital markets and driving unprecedented investment into the infrastructure powering the next era of technology growth. 

AI is reshaping the technology investment landscape, but the biggest opportunity may not sit solely in applications or software. As AI adoption accelerates, capital is increasingly flowing into the infrastructure required to support it - data centers, power availability, semiconductors, networking and other foundational assets. 

The report finds that venture capital, private equity and M&A activity are all being influenced by the same structural shift: investors are moving from AI hype toward AI deployment, monetization and the physical infrastructure needed to make it possible. Record AI venture investment, rising semiconductor activity, large-scale datacenter transactions and increasing focus on grid constraints all point to a market where control of critical infrastructure is becoming a key competitive advantage.  

Key trends 

AI investment remains strong, but concentration risk is rising 

AI venture capital deal value reached record levels in early 2026, driven in part by a single major OpenAI financing round. Even excluding that outlier, underlying investment momentum remains strong. 

Datacenters and power are now core private equity themes

Private equity interest has moved beyond software into digital infrastructure, with datacenter operators representing several of the largest recent tech PE deals. Power availability is emerging as a key bottleneck for development. 

Software valuations are being reassessed 

AI disruption is forcing investors to reconsider the durability of incumbent software business models. Recent take-private transactions suggest PE firms see opportunity in repositioning software companies for the next phase of AI adoption. 

M&A is shifting toward infrastructure and platform-scale assets 

Median tech buyout sizes have increased sharply since 2023, reflecting strong PE appetite for large platforms and assets tied to critical infrastructure. 

The next phase is deployment, not just training 

Investors are increasingly focused on where value will accrue as AI moves from model development to day-to-day enterprise use. Infrastructure assets with scarcity value and contracted cash flows may continue to attract premium interest.