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Capital markets commentary – tracking COVID-19

Jun 10, 2020

Authored by Mike Geraty

We started tracking the COVID-19 outbreak in mid-March after it was declared a global pandemic by the World Health Organization (WHO). Spain made headlines with the highest number of cases (20,000) while the U.S. had just over 3,000. Two weeks later, the U.S. had the highest number of cases (over 200,000) and Italy and Spain both had over 100,000.

As of June 8, 2020 there are over 7,000,000 cases worldwide and more than 400,000 fatalities. Overnight, there were some 111,000 new cases and nearly 3,000 fatalities. What are the important metrics?

Cases as a percent of population

The countries we follow, their population, total cases by date and percent of the population infected is displayed in Table 1. There are almost 2,000,000 cases in the U.S. affecting 0.55% of the population. In contrast, there are fewer than 12,000 cases in South Korea affecting 0.02% of the population. The coronavirus has infected 0.08% of the world’s population.

Table 1: Total cases and percent of population

Sources:
https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html

14-day case rate

On April 16, President Trump announced guidelines for reopening state economies, which include a “sustained reduction in cases for 14 days.” The 14-day case rate is displayed in Table 2. Two weeks ago, there were 1,643,829 cases in the U.S. Today, there are 1,942,363 cases, an increase of nearly 300,000 cases, or 18%.

Globally, there were 5,429,879 cases two weeks ago. Today, there are 7,038,942 cases, an increase of 1,609,063 cases, or 30%. One could argue that the 14-day case rate for Italy, Spain, Germany, France and South Korea are under control – increasing, but manageable. On the other hand, it is difficult to make the case that the U.S. meets the reopening guidelines. New COVID-19 hot spots include Brazil, Russia, the UK and India.

Table 2: 14-day case rate

Source: https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html

Net cases

If an individual tests positively for COVID-19, there are two outcomes: fatality or recovery. Net cases are equal to the total number of cases, less fatalities and recoveries. While there are over 7,000,000 cases globally, the number of net cases is roughly half that amount.

Case fatality and recovery rates

The Case Fatality Rate (CFR) is the number of fatalities divided by the number of cases. If someone contracts the coronavirus, there is about a 6.00% chance of dying. The CFR ranges from a low of 2.3% in South Korea to a high of 15.3% in France.

Table 3: Case fatality rate

Source: https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html

Similarly, the Case Recovery Rate (CRR) is the number of recoveries divided by the number of cases. There is a better than 40% chance of recovering from COVID-19. The CRR rate ranges from a low of 26.1% in the U.S. to a high of 91.2% in Germany.

For more information on this topic, or to learn how Baker Tilly public sector investment specialists can help, contact our team.

This information should not be construed as a recommendation of a particular investment strategy, it is being provided for illustration purposes only. The commentaries provided are opinions of Baker Tilly Investment Services, LLC. While the information is deemed reliable, Baker Tilly Investment Services, LLC cannot guarantee its accuracy, completeness, or suitability for any purpose and makes no warranties with regard to any results to be obtained from its use, or whether any expressed course of events will actually occur. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Baker Tilly Investment Services, LLC is a registered investment adviser and wholly-owned subsidiary of Baker Tilly US, LLP, an accounting firm. Baker Tilly US, LLP, trading as Baker Tilly, is a member of the global network of Baker Tilly International Ltd., the members of which are separate and independent legal entities.

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